"Adolescent metabolic phenotypes and early adult metabolic syndrome: Tehran lipid and glucose study"
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© 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. ObjectiveTo investigate the predictive role of adolescent metabolic phenotypes in development of early adult metabolic syndrome (MetS). Study designA group of 1446 adolescents (44.8% boys), participants of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, with a mean (SD) of age 14.6 (2.2) years, followed for 10.4 years. Logistic regression models were developed to evaluate the predictive power of different metabolic phenotypes for adult MetS. Moreover, areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were estimated to compare the prediction power of metabolic phenotypes for adult MetS. ResultsThe prevalence of MetS was 14.6% (29.7% and 2.4% for adult males and females, respectively) at the end of follow up. The most frequent metabolic phenotype in adolescent was high TGs/low HDL-C (23.7%), while the prevalence of high TGs/high WC was 10.4% and the other phenotypes were less than 10%. After adjustment for baseline BMI Z-Score and BMI change, high TGs/low HDL-C (OR: 1.70, 95%CI: 1.23-2.37), high WC/high BP (OR: 1.75., 95%CI: 1.08-2.84), high BP/low HDL-C (OR:1.68, 95%CI: 1.05-2.60) and high WC/low HDL-C (OR: 2.41, 95% CI: 1.37-4.23) phenotypes were associated with adult MetS. However, their AUCs were significantly lower than overweight or obesity. ConclusionSome combinations of metabolic abnormalities in adolescence predict early adult MetS, independent of baseline BMI Z-Score and BMI change. However, the discriminative power of these phenotypes was weak, in comparison to adolescent overweight or obesity.